Since late November 2024, import traders in Ningbo have decided to suspend accepting shipments from the US due to concerns over potential trade tensions between China and the US if Trump returns to office, particularly regarding the possibility of a 25% or higher retaliatory tariff on imported copper scrap from the US.
Reviewing the import data for secondary copper raw materials from January to October 2024, China’s cumulative import volume reached 1,858.9 kt, up 15.9% YoY. Among these, China imported 361.4 kt from the US, a major source of secondary copper raw materials, up 24.7% YoY. However, as of now, Ningbo importers have suspended accepting shipments from the US, and given the sudden nature of this decision, the overall import volume of secondary copper raw materials is expected to gradually decline starting in December, with some impact likely to persist at least in the early part of 2025.
Ningbo Customs, as the largest customs for secondary copper raw material imports, recorded a cumulative import volume of 1,126.6 kt from January to October 2024, accounting for 60.6% of the total import volume. Following closely was Guangzhou Customs, with a cumulative import volume of 198 kt during the same period, representing 10.7%. Although SMM has learned that some import traders in Guangdong are still placing orders for US resources, the suspension of orders by Ningbo importers will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the overall import volume of secondary copper raw materials.
This decision by Ningbo import traders reflects market concerns over uncertainties in future trade policies. According to traders in Zhenhai, Ningbo, the current warehouse supply is extremely tight, prompting traders to stand firm on quotes to address the supply deficit. However, traders noted that a batch of secondary copper raw materials is expected to arrive at the end of December or early January, which may help alleviate the current supply shortage. Nevertheless, many uncertainties remain, as much of the in-transit cargo has already been pre-ordered, and the actual volume that can arrive and be used is still uncertain. Furthermore, with the evolving China-US trade relations, the domestic supply of secondary copper raw materials is likely to remain tight in the near future. SMM will continue to monitor market developments.
